Decision approach for program risk analysis and management: a case study




program management, risk analysis, strategy


Purpose: This paper aims to discuss the basis on which the program risk analysis currently sustains, identifies the fragility of some of its main pillars, and proposes an alternative to the tactic level of analysis. Methodology/Approach: This work is an exploratory a case study based on decision analysis methods, a framework is proposed to make easier the selection of the main risks that should be managed. A mechanism that is relatively more complex, but more efficient for this analysis task. Findings: The proposed mechanism has several advantages over the approach traditionally adopted and does not inherit the biases arising from this widespread methodology. Research Limitation/implication: Applying this methodology to real complete programs would bring a more realistic notion of the costs and levels of complexity required for its implementation. Originality/Value of paper: Program risk management seeks to improve the likelihood of achieving the strategic goals of organizations through the treatment of threats and opportunities. However, the traditional technique used in project risk analysis has relevant weaknesses at the program level. The proposed method can also perform the same tasks but by investing an additional effort, its effectiveness can be increased. 


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Author Biographies

Bruno Rafael Dias de Lucena, Federal University of Pará

Bruno Lucena is an Adjunct Professor in the Graduate Program in Administration at the Federal University of Pará. He was a Production Engineer at Petrobras from 2008 to 2014, where he worked in the areas of quality, value engineering and risk management in downstream projects, monitoring of programs and control of critical project resources.

Shahid Rasheed, Ministry of Science and Technology of Pakistan

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)Management Science and Engineering in Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications. MSc Telecom EngineeringTelecom in University of Engineering and Technology Peshawer. Project Director, leading the PSDP project for establishment of Pak University of Engineering and Emerging Technologies (PUEET). PUEET is envisaged to be a research and research commercialization university housing twelve Centres of Excellence (CoE), Technology Parks, and other facilities of international standing.

Gledson Brito Miranda, Federal University of Pará

Graduated in Industrial Engineering from the Federal University of Pará (2017) and Specialist in Project Management from Fundação Getúlio Vargas (2020). He has experience in the field of technical education, as Technical Coordinator and Professor of technical courses at Grupo Educacional IEPAM.


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How to Cite

Lucena, B. R. D. de, Rasheed, S., & Miranda, G. B. (2022). Decision approach for program risk analysis and management: a case study. Revista Produção E Desenvolvimento, 8(1), e557.



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