Decision approach for program risk analysis and management: a case study

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32358/rpd.2022.v8.557

Keywords:

program management, risk analysis, strategy

Abstract

Purpose: This paper aims to discuss the basis on which the program risk analysis currently sustains, identifies the fragility of some of its main pillars, and proposes an alternative to the tactic level of analysis. Methodology/Approach: This work is an exploratory a case study based on decision analysis methods, a framework is proposed to make easier the selection of the main risks that should be managed. A mechanism that is relatively more complex, but more efficient for this analysis task. Findings: The proposed mechanism has several advantages over the approach traditionally adopted and does not inherit the biases arising from this widespread methodology. Research Limitation/implication: Applying this methodology to real complete programs would bring a more realistic notion of the costs and levels of complexity required for its implementation. Originality/Value of paper: Program risk management seeks to improve the likelihood of achieving the strategic goals of organizations through the treatment of threats and opportunities. However, the traditional technique used in project risk analysis has relevant weaknesses at the program level. The proposed method can also perform the same tasks but by investing an additional effort, its effectiveness can be increased. 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Bruno Rafael Dias de Lucena, Federal University of Pará

Bruno Lucena is an Adjunct Professor in the Graduate Program in Administration at the Federal University of Pará. He was a Production Engineer at Petrobras from 2008 to 2014, where he worked in the areas of quality, value engineering and risk management in downstream projects, monitoring of programs and control of critical project resources.

Shahid Rasheed, Ministry of Science and Technology of Pakistan

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)Management Science and Engineering in Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications. MSc Telecom EngineeringTelecom in University of Engineering and Technology Peshawer. Project Director, leading the PSDP project for establishment of Pak University of Engineering and Emerging Technologies (PUEET). PUEET is envisaged to be a research and research commercialization university housing twelve Centres of Excellence (CoE), Technology Parks, and other facilities of international standing.

Gledson Brito Miranda, Federal University of Pará

Graduated in Industrial Engineering from the Federal University of Pará (2017) and Specialist in Project Management from Fundação Getúlio Vargas (2020). He has experience in the field of technical education, as Technical Coordinator and Professor of technical courses at Grupo Educacional IEPAM.

References

Atkinson, R. (1999). Project Management: Cost, time, and quality, two best guesses and a phenomenon, it's time to accept other success criteria. International Journal of Project Management, 17(6), 337-342. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(98)00069-6

Bao, C., Wan, J., Dengsheng, W., & Jianping, L. (2021). Aggregating risk matrices under a normative framework. Journal of Risk Research, 24(8), 999–1015. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2019.1588912

Barletta, V., Caivano, D., Dimauro, G., Nannavecchia, A., & Scalera, M. (2020). Managing a Smart City Integrated Model through Smart Program Management. Applied Sciences, 10(2), 714. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10020714

Brito, J. V., & Medeiros Jr., J. V. (2021). Alignment strategic in project-based businesses: a review of the literature. Iberoamerican Journal of Project Management, 20(1), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.5585/riae.v20i1.17902

Cox jr, L. A. (2008). What’s wrong with risk matrices? Risk Analysis. In Risk Analysis: An International Journal (Vol. 28, pp. 497-512). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons INC. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01030.x

Hillson, D. (2008, October 19). Towards Programme Risk Management. Proceedings of PMI Global Congress North America, Denver, Colorado, USA, pp. 1-7.

Howard, R. (1966). Decision Analysis: Applied Decision Theory. Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Operational Research, (pp. 97-113). Boston. Fonte: https://sdg.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Decision-Analysis-Applied-Decision-Theory.pdf

Howard, R. (1979). Research Report No. EES DA-79-2: Life and Death Decision Analysis. Stanford: Department of Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University.

Howard, R., & Matheson, J. (1984). The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis. Melon Park: Strategic Decision Group.

Hubbard, D. W. (2009). The failure of risk management: why it’s broken and how to fix it (1ª ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons INC.

International Standards Organization. (2009). ISO 31000:2009. Risk Management - Principles and Guidelines. Geneva: International Standards Organization.

Jaber, A. Z. (2019). Assessment Risk in Construction Projects in Iraq using COPRAS-SWARA Combined Method. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 54(4), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.54.4.28

Jamshidnejad, N. (2021). Project Portfolio Selection Based on Risk Index. Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education, 12(14), 1783-1788.

Jiang, J., Klein, G., & Fernandez, W. (2018). From Project Management to Program Management: An Invitation to Investigate Programs Where IT Plays a Significant Role. Journal of the Association for Information Systems, 19(1), 40-57. https://doi.org/10.17705/1jais.00480

Kerzner, H. (2009). Project management: A systems approach to planning, scheduling (10ª ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons INC.

Li, Y., Hills, T., & Hertwig, R. (2020). A brief history of risk. Cognition, 203, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104342

Lucena, B. R., Lustosa, L. J., & Hillson, D. (2016). Program Risk Management: Making Strategy Possible. In C. Barclay, & K.-M. Osey-Bryson, Strategic Project Management: Contemporary Issues and Strategies for Developing Economies (pp. 154-175). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.

Lycett, M., Rassau, A., & Danson, J. (2004). Program management: a critical review. International Journal of Project Management, 22(4), 289-299.

Milosevic, D. C., Martinelli, R. J., & Wadell, J. M. (2007). Program Management for Improved Business Results. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons INC.

Mulambya, E., & Zaaiman, H. (2021). A literature - and senior stakeholder- informed model of southern African programme risk management challenges. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 13(6), 1-14.

Office of Government Commerce. (2007). Managing Successful Programmes (3ª ed.). Norwich: The Stationery Office.

Pellegrinelli, S. (1997). Programme management: organising project-based change. International Journal of Project Management, 15(3), 141-149. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(96)00063-4

Pellegrinelli, S. (2011, February). What’s in a name: Project or programme? International Journal Project Management, 29(2), 232-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.02.009

Project Management Institute. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (6ª ed.). Pennsylvania: Newtown Square.

Project Management Institute. (2017). The Standard for Program Management (4ª ed.). Pennsylvania: Newtown Square.

Rai, V. K., & Swaminathan, N. (2010, April 5). Constructing Program Management Framework - A System of Systems Approach. IEEE International Systems Conference, San Diego, CA. https://doi.org/10.1109/SYSTEMS.2010.5482471

Rasheed, S., Yaqub, F., Wang, C. F., Memon, S., & Lucena, B. R. (2018). Risk Leveling – an organised risk management approach. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 21(1/2), 135-153. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.090266

Sanchez, H., Robert, B., Bourgault, M., & Pellerin, R. (2009). Risk Management applied to projects, programs, and portfolios. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 2(1), 14-35. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538370910930491

Shao, J., Müller, R., & Turner, J. R. (2012). Measuring Program Success. Project Management Journal, 43(1), 37-49. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.20286

Shankar, R., Choudharya, D., & Jharkharia, S. (2018). An integrated risk assessment model: A case of sustainable freight. Transportation Research Part D, 63, 662-676. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.07.003

Stretton, A. (2020). Strategic initiatives, project/program management, and responsibilities for benefits realization. PM World Journal, 10(5), 1-21.

Smith, N. J., Bower, D., & Aritua, B. (2008, November 9). A Complexity Science Based Approach to Programme Risk Management. 22nd IPMA World Congress.

Thiry, M. (2002). Combining Value and Project Management into an Effective Program Management Model. International Journal of Project Management, 20(3), 221-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(01)00072-2

Thiry, M. (2004). "For DAD": A Programme Management Life-Cycle Process. International Journal of Project Management, 22(3), 245-252. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(03)00064-4

Turner, J., & Müller, R. (2003). On the nature of the project as a temporary organization. International Journal of Project Management, 21(1), 1-8.

Adamy, A., & Rani, H. A. (2022). An evaluation of community satisfaction with the government's COVID-19 pandemic response in Aceh, Indonesia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 69, 102723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102723

Morais, C., Estrada-Lugo, H. D., Tolo, S., Jacques, T., Moura, R., Beer, M., & Patelli, E. (2022). Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 218, 107990. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107990

Unegbu, H. C.-a. (2020). An investigation of the relationship between project performance measures and project management practices of construction projects for the construction industry in Nigeria. Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences, In Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2020.10.001

Yoe, C. (2019). Principles of risk analysis: decision making under uncertainty (2nd ed.). CRC Press.

Downloads

Published

2022-01-31

How to Cite

Lucena, B. R. D. de, Rasheed, S., & Miranda, G. B. (2022). Decision approach for program risk analysis and management: a case study. Revista Produção E Desenvolvimento, 8(1), e557. https://doi.org/10.32358/rpd.2022.v8.557

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 1 (2022): January-December

Section

Management Affairs

License

All content on this work is licensed under a Creative Commons BY Attribution 4.0 Unported license. The articles are free to use, with their CC BY attributions of license.

The journal is not responsible for the opinions, ideas and concepts emitted in the texts, as they are the sole responsibility of its author (s).

The publisher has the right to reject articles that in the evaluation process have been detected signs of plagiarism. The articles that have been detected indications of plagiarism after the publication, will be excluded from the edition. And the indication of the problem will be informed in the place of the text, keeping the same amount of pages.

This journal adopts the principles of ethical conduct of international quality Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE), as well as the parameters of Integrity in the Scientific Activity indicated by SCOPUS and SCIELO.