CITIES THAT ARE LOSING INHABITANTS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE BRAZILIAN REALITY
AbstractPurpose: This article identifies the Brazilian cities that showed urban decline in the period between 1970 and 2010 based on the country's official census conducted by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Based on this identification, analysis of the behaviors presented by the cities with population loss allows separate them according to the two theories that explain the loss of population: life cycle and persistent decline. Methodology: The article compares the Brazilian situation with countries from other continents, namely Europe, which also showed population decline in the cities. Findings: The results show a diversity of situations, whereby the population decline of cities is not a generalized phenomenon nor inevitable. Implication: This analysis allows the discussion about whether the loss of inhabitants in some cities is an inevitable part of a country's development process in the sense that as countries increase their development indices also increases the number of cities with population loss. Originality: This paper provides a comprehensive portrait of the lost of inhabitants in the Brazilian cities. The article is the first to analyze the population trajectory of all Brazilian cities, covering a period of four decades.
Anderson, J. S. N., & Schneider, S. (2015). Brazilian demographic transition and the strategic role of youth. Espace populations sociétés, 2–3, p.20. https://doi.org/10.4000/eps.5774.
Audirac, I. (2018a). Introduction: Shrinking Cities from marginal to mainstream: Views from North America and Europe. Cities, 75, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.10.012.
Audirac, I. (2018b). Shrinking cities: An unfit term for American urban policy? Cities, 75, 12–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.05.001.
Baeninger, R. (2011). Migrações internas no Brasil século 21: evidências empíricas e desafios conceituais. In J. M. P. Cunha (Eds.), Mobilidade espacial da população: desafios teóricos e metodológicos para o seu estudo (pp. 71–93). Campinas: Núcleo de Estudos de População – Nepo/Unicamp.
Barreira, A. P., Nunes, L. C., Guimarães, M. H., & Panagopoulos, T. (2019). Satisfied but thinking about leaving: The reasons behind residential satisfaction and residential attractiveness in shrinking Portuguese cities. International Journal of Urban Sciences, 23(1), 67–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2018.1447390.
Barreira, A.P., Ramalho, J. J. S., Panagopoulos, T., & Guimarães, M. H. (2017). Factors driving the population growth and decline of Portuguese cities. Growth and Change, 48(4), 853–868. https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.12205.
Beauregard, R. A. (2009). Urban population loss in historical perspective: United States, 1820-2000. Environment and Planning A, 41(3), 514–528. https://doi.org/10.1068/a40139a.
Blažek, J., Květoň, V., Baumgartinger-Seiringer, S., & Trippl, M. (2019). The dark side of regional industrial path development: towards a typology of trajectories of decline. European Planning Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2019.1685466.
Carvalho, J. A. M. (1997). Demographic dynamics in Brazil recent trends and perspectives. Brazilian Journal on Population Studies, 1, 5–23. Disponível em: http://www.abep.nepo.unicamp.br/docs/rev_inf/rebep_ingles_n1/vol1ing_n1_1997e1998_1artigo_5_23.pdf.
Galster, G. (2019). Why Shrinking Cities Are Not Mirror Images of Growing Cities: A Research Agenda of Six Testable Propositions. Urban Affairs Review, 55(1), 355–372. https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087417720543.
Giffoni, F., Gomellini, M. & Pellegrino, D. (2019). Human capital and urban growth in italy, 1981–2001. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 31(1–2), 77–101. https://doi.org/10.1111/rurd.12100.
Guimarães, M. H., Barreira, A. P., & Panagopoulos, T. (2015). Shrinking cities in Portugal – Where and why. Revista Portuguesa de Estudos Regionais, 40(3), 23–41. Disponível em: http://www.apdr.pt/siteRPER/numeros/RPER40/40.2.pdf.
Haacke, H., Enßle, F., Haase, D., Helbrecht, I., & Lakes, T. (2019). Why Do(n’t) People Move When They Get Older? Estimating the Willingness to Relocate in Diverse Ageing Cities. Urban Planning, 4(2), 53–69. https://doi.org/10.17645/up.v4i2.1901.
Haase A., Wolff M., Rink D. (2018) From Shrinkage to Regrowth: The Nexus Between Urban Dynamics, Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Provision. In: Kabisch S. et al. (eds) Urban Transformations. Future City, vol 10. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59324-1_11
Hesse, M. (2006). Suburbanization. In P. Oswalt (Ed.), Atlas of Shrinking Cities (pp. 96–97). Hatje Cantz: Ostfildern.
Jaroszewska, E. (2019). Urban shrinkage and regeneration of an old industrial city: The case of Wałbrzych in Poland. Quaestiones Geographicae, 38(2), 75–90. https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2019-0023.
Kooiman, N., Latten, J., & Bontje, M. (2018). Human Capital Migration: A Longitudinal Perspective. Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie, 109(5), 644 – 660. https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12324.
Mallach, A. (2017). What we talk about when we talk about shrinking cities: The ambiguity of discourse and policy response in the United States. Cities, 69, 109–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.01.008.
Martine, G. (1994). A redistribuição espacial da população brasileira durante a década de 80. Texto para discussão, n. 329, IPEA: Brasília.
Martine, G. & Mcgranahan, G. (2010). Brazil´s early urban transition: what can it teach urbanizing countries? International Institute for Environment and development (IIED), UNFPA.
Merrilees, B., Miller, D., & Herington, C. (2013). City branding: A facilitating framework for stressed satellite cities. Journal of Business Research, 66(1), 37–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2011.07.021.
Metzger, J. T. (2000). Planned abandonment. The neighbourhood life-cycle theory and national urban policy. Housing Policy Debate, 11(1), 7–40. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2000.9521359.
Nelle, A., Großmann, K., Haase, D., Kabisch, S., Rink, D., & Wolff, M. (2017). Urban shrinkage in Germany: An entangled web of conditions, debates and policies. Cities, 69, 116–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.006.
OECD (2003). Low Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: Facts and Policy Responses. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, Paris.
Oswalt, P. & Rieniets, T. (Eds.) (2006). Atlas of Shrinking Cities. Hatje Cantz Publishers.
Pallagst, K., Fleschurz, R., & Said, S. (2017). What drives planning in a shrinking city? Tales from two German and two American cases. Town Planning Review, 88(1), 2815–2828. https://doi.org/10.3828/tpr.2017.3.
Panagopoulos, T., Guimarães, M. H., & Barreira, A. P. (2015). Influences on citizens, policy preferences for shrinking cities: a case study of four Portuguese cities. Regional Studies Regional Science, 2(1): 140–169. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2015.1010225.
Park, Y. & LaFrombois, M. E. H. (2019). Planning for growth in depopulating cities: An analysis of population projections and population change in depopulating and populating US cities. Cities, 90, 237–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.02.016.
Power, A., Plöger, J. & Winkler, A. (2010). Phoenix cities. The fall and rise of great industrial cities. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Policy Press: Bristol – UK. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt9qgqch.
Rigotti, J. I. R., & Cunha, J. M. P. (2012). A migração interna nos últimos 50 anos: (des)continuidades, rupturas e recrudescimentos. XI Reunión Nacional de Investigación Demográfica em México, Sociedad Mexicana de Demográfia (SOMEDE): Águas Calientes.
Rodríguez-Pose, A. (2018). The revenge of the places that don’t matter (and what to do about it). Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 11(1), 189–209. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsx024.
SEDHS (Secretária de Estado de Desenvolvimento Humano e Social) (2012). O que é transferência de renda? Disponível em: http://www.sedest.df.gov.br/direitos/o-que-e-transferencia-de-renda.html.
Silva, C.M. (2012). O fluxo migratório baiano: uma análise a partir de indicadores socioeconômicos. III Simpósio Cidades Médias e Pequenas da Bahia, Feira de Santana – BA.
Siqueira, M. R, & Vianaa, M. L. T. W. (2013). A dimensão política do desenvolvimento do município brasileiro de Goiás – GO (1937–2001). XXVII Simpósio Nacional de História, Natal – RN.
Sousa, S. (2019). Local planning attitudes: Comparative content analysis of municipal director plans of shrinking Portuguese cities. Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, 44(44), 81–91. https://doi.org/10.2478/bog-2019-0017.
Tameirão, K. A., & Nogueira, M. (2013). A Problemática do Desenvolvimento Socioeconômico nos Pequenos Municípios: Estudo de Caso da Pequena Cidade de Monjolos/MG, Brasil. In 14º Encontro de Geógrafos da América Latina Lima (pp. 1–20). Lima: Egal.
Turok, I., & Mykhnenko, V. (2007). The trajectories of European cities, 1960-2005. Cities, 24(3), 165–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2007.01.007.
Ubarevičienė, R. & van Ham, M. (2017). Population decline in Lithuania: who lives in declining regions and who leaves? Regional Studies, Regional Science, 4(1), 57–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2017.1313127.
UNFPA (2007). State of world population 2007. Unleashing the potential of urban growth. United Nations Population Fund, Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, Executive Director.
van den Berg, L., Drewett, R., Klaassen, L. H., Rossi, A., & Vijverberg, C. H. T. (1982). Urban Europe: A Study of Growth and Decline. Pergamon Press: Oxford.
Wolff, M., Fol, S., Roth, H., & Cunningham-Sabot, E. (2017). Is planning needed? Shrinking cities in the French urban system. Town Planning Review, 88(1), 131–145. https://doi.org/10.3828/tpr.2017.10.
Wolff, M., & Wiechmann, T. (2018). Urban growth and decline: Europe’s shrinking cities in a comparative perspective 1990–2010. European Urban and Regional Studies, 25(2), 122–139. https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776417694680.
Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Produção e Desenvolvimento
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
All content on this work is licensed under a Creative Commons BY Attribution 4.0 Unported license. The articles are free to use, with their CC BY attributions of license.
The journal is not responsible for the opinions, ideas and concepts emitted in the texts, as they are the sole responsibility of its author (s).
The publisher has the right to reject articles that in the evaluation process have been detected signs of plagiarism. The articles that have been detected indications of plagiarism after the publication, will be excluded from the edition. And the indication of the problem will be informed in the place of the text, keeping the same amount of pages.
This journal adopts the principles of ethical conduct of international quality Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE), as well as the parameters of Integrity in the Scientific Activity indicated by the National Council of Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). These Guidelines are available at the following address: http://www.cnpq.br/web/guest/diretrizes